WS #6256
The dominant narrative remains the escalating Iran conflict, with oil prices surging above $119/bbl on reports of an extended US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned the blockade could last months, sending Brent crude up 7.6% to $119.69. The Pentagon officially priced the Iran war at $25bn so far, mostly in munitions. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% with a record 4 dissents, and Powell announced he will stay on as Fed governor, defying Trump. Big Tech earnings were mixed: Alphabet and Amazon beat on strong cloud/AI growth, while Meta beat but fell on raised capex guidance ($125-145bn). Qualcomm surged 17% after hours on earnings beat and major AI chip sale. Oil price surge is bearish for airlines/consumer, bullish for energy. The Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING with no de-escalation signals.
Key developments
- Oil surges above $119/bbl as Trump warns Iran blockade could last months
- Pentagon estimates Iran war cost at $25bn so far, mostly in munitions
- Trump rejects Iran's proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting blockade
- Fed holds rates with record 4 dissents; Powell says he will stay on as governor
- Alphabet beats Q1 earnings; Google Cloud revenue surpasses $20B for first time
- Meta beats Q1 earnings but stock falls 6%+ on raised capex guidance ($125-145bn)
- Qualcomm jumps 17% after hours on earnings beat and major AI chip sale
- Amazon beats Q1 earnings; AWS revenue grows 28% YoY