WS #6272

The dominant theme remains the escalating oil supply shock, with Brent crude surging above $126/barrel after Trump warned the US blockade of Iranian ports could last months. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Bloomberg, GDELT, and BBC, confirming the Strait of Hormuz crisis is now a global price shock. The ECB held rates at 2% but signaled a possible June hike due to energy-driven inflation, while the Bank of England held at 3.75% with an 8-1 vote, warning of prolonged inflation from the Iran war. US Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% annualized, below the 2.2% estimate, with the PCE inflation gauge surging to 4.5% annualized, the highest since 2023. US natural gas storage missed expectations at +79 Bcf vs +83 Bcf estimate. On the geopolitical front, Hezbollah drone strikes on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and the interception of the Gaza aid flotilla by Israel add further Middle East tensions. In tech earnings, Alphabet surged on strong cloud revenue, while Meta dropped after raising capex guidance, raising AI spending ROI concerns. Microsoft shares fell despite beating estimates, as Azure growth was in line but capex concerns persist. NVDA saw bearish options activity ahead of earnings. Spirit Airlines is reportedly running out of cash within days, with $500M aid talks stalled. The Louisiana primary postponement after the Supreme Court Voting Rights Act ruling is a political development but not directly market-moving. Overall, the oil shock and central bank responses are the key signals, with the narrative arc ESCALATING as the blockade persists and inflation data worsens.