WS #6273

The dominant theme remains the escalating oil supply shock, with Brent crude surging above $126/barrel after Axios reported Trump is set to receive a briefing on plans for fresh military strikes on Iran, and Israel's defense minister said the country may have to 'act again' against Iran. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Reuters, OilPrice.com, and GDELT, confirming the Strait of Hormuz crisis is now a global price shock. The ECB left rates unchanged but signaled a possible June hike due to energy-driven inflation, with sources saying at least two rate hikes are expected. The Bank of England held at 3.75% with an 8-1 vote, warning of prolonged inflation from the Iran war. US jobless claims fell to 189,000, below expectations, indicating a still-strong labor market. In tech earnings, Alphabet surged on strong cloud revenue, while Meta dropped after raising capex guidance, raising AI spending ROI concerns. Qualcomm soared 16% on Q2 beat and massive TAM shift with custom AI hyperscaler chip shipments. Caterpillar hit an all-time high after Q1 beat and raise, benefiting from AI buildout. The FDA proposed excluding Novo and Lilly weight loss drugs from bulk compounding, a win for the companies. Overall, the oil shock and central bank responses are the key signals, with the narrative arc ESCALATING as the blockade persists and new military threats emerge.