WS #6274

The dominant theme remains the escalating oil supply shock, with Brent crude surging above $126/barrel and California gas surpassing $6/gallon. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports is cutting Tehran's oil exports, and Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit Russian oil infrastructure, including the Tuapse refinery. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Reuters, OilPrice.com, and GDELT, confirming the Strait of Hormuz crisis is now a global price shock. The ECB signaled a possible June hike if energy prices don't ease, and the Bank of England held rates but warned of prolonged inflation. In tech earnings, Alphabet surged on strong cloud revenue, while Meta dropped after raising capex guidance, raising AI spending ROI concerns. Qualcomm soared 16% on Q2 beat and massive TAM shift with custom AI hyperscaler chip shipments. Caterpillar hit an all-time high after Q1 beat and raise, benefiting from AI buildout. The FDA proposed excluding Novo and Lilly weight loss drugs from bulk compounding, a win for the companies. Overall, the oil shock and central bank responses are the key signals, with the narrative arc ESCALATING as the blockade persists and new military threats emerge. Counter-signals: None in this window that offset the prevailing oil crisis thesis.