WS #6320

Apple reported strong quarterly sales, with iPhone revenue up 22% to $57B, beating estimates despite supply constraints. CEO Tim Cook warned that rising memory costs will intensify as a headwind starting in June, driven by AI-driven demand for memory chips. This is a mixed signal: strong demand is bullish, but margin pressure from memory costs is bearish. Chevron beat Q1 EPS estimates ($1.41 vs $0.95) on war-driven oil prices, though revenue missed and downstream losses were wider than expected. Estee Lauder raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance above estimates, signaling resilience in premium beauty despite macro headwinds. The EU-Mercosur trade deal entered provisional effect, opening zero-tariff access for 54% of the European market to Mercosur exports, which is bullish for Brazilian ag and industrial exporters but bearish for European farmers facing competition. Japan intervened in FX markets, spending ~$34.5B to prop up the yen, which may temporarily stabilize USD/JPY but signals ongoing pressure. The dominant narrative remains the Iran war and oil price dynamics, with Strait of Hormuz blockade continuing to disrupt global energy and fertilizer supplies. No major counter-signals to the prevailing bearish macro thesis were detected in this window.