WS #6321

The dominant narrative remains the Iran war and its impact on oil prices and global supply chains, with the situation ESCALATING. Oil prices are rising again as the ceasefire remains fragile, with Brent crude up 89 cents to $111.29. The UAE's exit from OPEC is a significant development that could reshape oil market dynamics, though its immediate impact is muted by the war. Exxon and Chevron reported earnings that beat estimates but showed profit declines due to the war's disruptions, with Exxon losing nearly $4 billion on hedges. Exxon also warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for the entire quarter, Middle East production will be reduced by about 750,000 barrels per day. Trump threatened to withdraw troops from Italy and Spain, escalating tensions with NATO allies. The 60-day War Powers deadline expires today, with the administration arguing the ceasefire pauses the clock, creating legal uncertainty. On the corporate side, nVent Electric raised guidance significantly, beating estimates. Apple reported a record quarter with iPhone revenue up 22%, but CEO Tim Cook warned of rising memory costs as a headwind. Moderna beat revenue estimates on stronger COVID vaccine sales. The EU-Mercosur trade deal entered provisional effect, which is bullish for Brazilian exporters but bearish for European farmers. Japan's FX intervention continues to be a short-term fix for the yen. The fertilizer crisis is deepening, with the UN warning of increased hunger in Asia due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade and China's export ban. The prevailing macro thesis of oil-driven inflation and geopolitical risk is intensifying, with no major counter-signals to the bearish macro narrative detected in this window.