WS #6581

The dominant signal in this window is the ongoing escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with reports of renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran claiming the US sank civilian boats, contradicting Trump's statement that the war was over. This is corroborated by multiple sources (BBC Newscast, Bluesky posts, Polymarket trades on Strait of Hormuz traffic and peace deals). The narrative arc is ESCALATING from the previous ceasefire frame. Oil prices remain elevated, with EIA data showing Brent crude spot prices surging past futures and the DOE releasing 17.5 million barrels from the SPR since March. Central banks are responding: the ECB held rates steady citing upside risks to inflation from energy prices, the Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% noting elevated inflation from energy, and the BoE held at 3.75% with one member voting to hike. The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters revised up near-term inflation and down growth. Separately, the SEC proposed allowing companies to file semiannual reports instead of quarterly, a structural change that could reduce transparency but is long-term bullish for corporate focus. On the earnings front, Eaton (ETN) reported a strong quarter with record revenue of $7.45B, beating estimates, but shares fell on hot money concerns; the stock was bought on the dip. Assurant (AIZ) beat Q1 estimates with EPS of $5.95 vs $5.29 consensus. Apple (AAPL) is reportedly allowing users to choose rival AI models across iOS 27 features, a potential shift in competitive dynamics. The oil shock is not hitting like 2008 according to Carlyle, suggesting a more contained impact. Muni bond funds drew $22B in the fastest pace since 2021, indicating a flight to safety. Polymarket shows active trading on Iran-related outcomes (peace deal, Strait of Hormuz traffic, airspace closure) and crude oil price levels, reflecting high uncertainty.