WS #6582

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting new developments. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has introduced a 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' to regulate ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, requiring vessels to obtain permission and pay transit fees, while warning ships to use only Tehran-approved routes or face 'firm action'. This comes alongside claims that the US bombed/sank civilian boats, contradicting Trump's statement that the war was over. The UN Secretary-General warned the crisis could push tens of millions into poverty and tip the world towards recession. On the diplomatic front, Trump stated he plans to discuss the conflict with President Xi Jinping and offered to redirect Chinese oil tanker shipments to US ports. Polymarket shows active trading on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization and US-Iran diplomatic meeting outcomes, reflecting high uncertainty. The narrative arc is ESCALATING, with no de-escalation signals in this window. On the corporate and regulatory front, Assurant (AIZ) reported record Q1 results and raised full-year outlook, with shares trading higher. SoFi announced plans to launch a stablecoin on Solana. The SEC proposed scrapping quarterly reporting requirements in favor of semi-annual reports, a structural change that could reduce transparency but is long-term bullish for corporate focus. Alphabet (GOOGL) issued a C$8.5 billion bond deal in Canada, driving spreads wider. Global oil reserves are plunging at a record pace due to the Middle East war, with stocks near an 8-year low ahead of summer travel season. The FT reports that bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is costly but necessary. The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters revised up near-term inflation and down growth, consistent with the energy shock narrative. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% in April, noting elevated inflation from energy prices. The BoE held at 3.75% with one member voting to hike, citing risks from the Middle East conflict.