WS #6583

The Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to escalate, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard introducing a 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' to regulate ship traffic, requiring vessels to obtain permission and pay transit fees, and warning ships to use only Tehran-approved routes or face 'firm action'. Multiple sources (BBC, UN, FT, Seeking Alpha) corroborate the severity: Exxon warns the oil market has yet to feel the full impact of the Hormuz closure, global oil reserves are plunging at a record pace, and the UN Secretary-General warns the crisis could push tens of millions into poverty and tip the world towards recession. The narrative arc is ESCALATING, with no de-escalation signals in this window. Trump offered to redirect Chinese oil tanker shipments to US ports and plans to discuss the conflict with President Xi Jinping, but this does not constitute a de-escalation. Polymarket shows active trading on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization and US-Iran diplomatic meeting outcomes, reflecting high uncertainty. On the corporate front, SoFi announced plans to launch a stablecoin on Solana, and Apple plans to let users choose rival AI models across iOS 27 features, a potential positive for AI competition. The SEC proposed scrapping quarterly reporting in favor of semi-annual reports, a structural change that could reduce transparency but is long-term bullish for corporate focus. Alphabet's C$8.5 billion bond deal in Canada is driving spreads wider. Assurant reported record Q1 results and raised full-year outlook. Norwegian Cruise Line lowered FY2026 guidance post-Q1, while Ferguson reported solid results but flagged weak US housing demand. The dominant theme remains the escalating Hormuz crisis, with energy and shipping sectors most directly impacted.