WS #7013

The dominant macro theme remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with President Trump rejecting Iran's ceasefire proposal as 'totally unacceptable,' confirmed by multiple sources including CNBC, Reuters, and Al Jazeera. This rejection signals continued supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz, supporting elevated oil prices. Oil rose over 4% as per Seeking Alpha, with ANZ seeing Brent above $90 through 2026. However, a potential counter-signal emerged: Iran's counterproposal includes recognition of sovereignty over Hormuz, and state media reports suggest a path to safe passage. Separately, China's April exports surged 14.1% to a record high, lifting the trade surplus beyond forecasts, while CPI rose to 1.2% and PPI surged to 2.8% on commodity spikes. China's private refiners seek Beijing approval to cut run rates, indicating margin pressure from high crude costs. In company news, Nintendo slumped 9% on Switch 2 pricing and cautious guidance, while Cerebras Systems is reportedly hiking its IPO price range to $150-$160 per share amid strong demand. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on the US-Iran conflict, with no de-escalation signals, but the Trump-Xi meeting and continued oil traffic through Hormuz provide partial offsets.