WS #7014

The dominant macro theme remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with oil prices surging over 4% as Brent crude tops $105/barrel and WTI breaches $100. Multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, GDELT) confirm the spike, driven by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and fresh attacks. However, a potential counter-signal emerges: Iran's counterproposal includes recognition of sovereignty over Hormuz and safe passage for ships, reported by multiple Bluesky accounts and state media. This could de-escalate tensions and dampen the oil rally. Separately, India's PM Modi urged citizens to work from home and conserve fuel to save foreign exchange, indicating severe economic strain from high oil prices. China's private refiners seek approval to cut run rates, confirming margin pressure. In company news, Seadrill (SDRL) beat Q1 estimates with EPS of -$0.11 vs -$0.23 consensus, revenue $358M vs $325.8M. Blackstone (BX) agreed to acquire a majority stake in Greek marketplace Skroutz. The narrative arc is STABLE on the US-Iran conflict, with the Iran counterproposal providing a potential de-escalation path, but no concrete breakthrough yet.