WS #7102

The dominant signal this window is the continued escalation of the Iran-US conflict, with new developments including a WSJ report that the UAE conducted covert strikes on Iran's Lavan Island refinery, and Kuwait foiling an IRGC maritime infiltration attempt. This is corroborated by multiple sources (WSJ, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Sky, CNBC) and is driving oil prices higher, with Brent crude at $107/barrel. Australia's budget scenario analysis modeled oil at $200/barrel if the Iran war intensifies. The narrative arc for the Iran situation is ESCALATING. In corporate news, eBay formally rejected GameStop's $56B bid (multiple sources), which is a high-significance M&A development. Several earnings reports were released: Hims & Hers plummeted 16% on weak guidance; Zebra Technologies beat estimates and raised guidance; Ambiq Micro beat estimates and issued strong Q2 outlook; D-Wave Quantum rose on Q1 results; Under Armour reported Q4 results (details not provided). The ECB's Patsalides signaled a potential June rate hike due to heightened inflation risks, which is a hawkish surprise. Trump is leading a delegation of US executives to China, notably excluding Nvidia's Jensen Huang, signaling continued chip export restrictions. The UK political crisis remains elevated but no new data points beyond the prior window's narrative. The narrative arc for the Iran situation is ESCALATING, for UK politics is STABLE, and for the 'Warsh trade' is DE-ESCALATING as oil surge changes rate-cut expectations.