WS #7103

The dominant signal this window is the April CPI release, which came in at 3.8% YoY vs 3.7% expected, with core CPI at 2.8% vs 2.7% expected. This is the highest inflation since May 2023, driven by energy costs from the Iran conflict. Multiple sources (CNBC, Guardian, NPR, NYT, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, Benzinga, Seeking Alpha, Alpaca, Bluesky) corroborate the data and its implications: Fed rate-cut hopes are effectively dead for 2026, with markets now pricing no cuts at the June meeting and a higher-for-longer narrative. Nasdaq futures dropped >1% on the news. The Iran-US conflict continues to escalate, with Kuwait formally accusing Iran of deploying IRGC members for attacks, Iran threatening 90% uranium enrichment, and Pakistan scrambling to salvage the ceasefire. Oil prices remain elevated with WTI at $101, and the Strait of Hormuz closure cutting 20% of global supply. In corporate news, Wendy's shares surged on reported buyout interest from Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund, while Under Armour tumbled on wider-than-expected losses and weak outlook. Fluence Energy announced a secondary offering of 20M shares by selling stockholders, which is dilutive. The UK political crisis deepens with a third minister resigning and 80+ MPs calling for Starmer to step down, but this remains a UK-specific story with limited US market impact. The narrative arc for inflation is ESCALATING, for Iran is ESCALATING, and for UK politics is ESCALATING.