WS #7118

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. Oil prices are surging, with Brent crude nearing $110 and WTI above $101, driven by Trump's warning that the Iran ceasefire is on 'life support' and reports that Gulf oil infrastructure repairs may stretch into 2027. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Oilprice.com and Bloomberg. The energy crisis is spilling over into inflation and supply chains, with Morgan Stanley's chief US economist expecting inflation to peak in May or June, keeping the Fed on the sidelines. High inflation is pushing Treasury yields toward 5%, as reported by MarketWatch. A key counter-signal emerges from Pakistan's diplomatic efforts: the foreign ministry confirmed talks with both Iran and China, underscoring the importance of continuing the ceasefire and ensuring normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This de-escalation attempt is corroborated by Reuters and multiple Bluesky posts. However, Trump's rejection of Iran's peace overtures and the UAE's secret strikes on Iran (Lavan Island refinery) suggest the conflict remains intense. In corporate news, Venture Global shares surged on LNG deals and project expansions (Bloomberg), while Hims & Hers Health shares tanked after disappointing Q1 results. Alphabet offered an eight-tranche deal in its debut yen bond sale. A dark pool alert showed a large $218M institutional order in MSFT at $408.2, suggesting institutional accumulation. Bitcoin holds near $80,000 amid the macro uncertainty, with the bull-bear cycle indicator turning green for the first time since 2023 (carried forward from previous awareness).