WS #7119

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. Oil prices are surging, with WTI above $101 and Brent near $110, driven by Trump's rejection of Iran's peace overtures and reports of UAE secret strikes on Iran's Lavan Island refinery. A key counter-signal emerges from Pakistan's diplomatic efforts: the foreign ministry confirmed talks with both Iran and China, underscoring the importance of continuing the ceasefire and ensuring normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This de-escalation attempt is corroborated by Reuters and multiple Bluesky posts. However, Trump's doubling down on rejecting Iran's peace overtures suggests the conflict remains intense. The energy crisis is spilling over into supply chains, with supply-chain stress gauges flashing red, adding to reasons for central banks to be on guard for high inflation. Morgan Stanley's chief US economist expects inflation to peak in May or June, keeping the Fed on the sidelines. In corporate news, Venture Global shares surged on LNG deals and project expansions (Bloomberg), while Hims & Hers Health shares tanked after disappointing Q1 results. A dark pool alert showed a large $218M institutional order in MSFT at $408.2, suggesting institutional accumulation. Alphabet offered an eight-tranche deal in its debut yen bond sale. Bitcoin holds near $80,000 amid the macro uncertainty.