WS #7195

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran war-driven oil supply crisis, which is ESCALATING. OPEC slashed its oil demand forecast as Hormuz blockade hammers output, with OPEC production falling more than 30% since the Iran war began. A Chinese tanker is set to test the US Hormuz naval blockade, raising the risk of direct confrontation. The IEA warned that Europe needs to cover 80-90% of lost Middle Eastern imports to avoid summer shortages, as Middle Eastern jet fuel arrivals to Europe plummeted from 330,000 bpd in March to 60,000 bpd in April. Russia's oil production dropped to a 10-month low of 9.057 million bpd in April due to Ukrainian drone attacks. On the corporate front, Nvidia gained on news that CEO Jensen Huang joined Trump on his China trip, thrusting AI into the spotlight. Anduril raised $5B at a $61B valuation, doubling from a year ago, signaling strong demand for defense tech. Anthropic is nearing a $50B revenue run-rate as fundraising talks heat up. Nextpower jumped to a new high after a Q1 beat and raise. Dynatrace slid 10% after Q4 earnings failed to defend its AI position. Leidos won a framework agreement to supply 3,000 low-cost containerized munitions to the Department of War. The Alex Murdaugh conviction overturn is a non-market story. The OPEC demand forecast cut and the Chinese tanker test of the Hormuz blockade are the key new macro signals.