WS #7196

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran war-driven oil supply crisis, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources corroborate that Iran has regained access to ~90% of its underground missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, with missile stocks at ~70% of pre-war levels, directly contradicting US claims that Iran's military was 'decimated.' This raises the risk of further Hormuz blockade disruptions. The EIA reported a larger-than-expected 4.3M barrel crude inventory draw (vs. 2.1M forecast), with Cushing stocks falling 1.7M barrels, signaling accelerating tightness. OPEC slashed its oil demand forecast as Hormuz blockade hammers output, with OPEC production falling more than 30% since the Iran war began. Russia's oil production dropped to a 10-month low of 9.057M bpd in April due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Oil futures climbed on the EIA data. Separately, Trump has arrived in China for a high-stakes summit with Xi, with reports of tariff reduction negotiations on $30B in imports. This could act as a counter-signal to the bearish trade war narrative. On the corporate front, Nvidia gained on news CEO Jensen Huang joined Trump on his China trip, thrusting AI into the spotlight. Nebius Group surged ~18% to a fresh 52-week high after strong Q1 results, with AI cloud revenue up 841% YoY. Alibaba reported a miss on revenue and EPS due to heavy AI/cloud investments, but saw a 'buy the miss' reaction. Ford shares jumped 6% after Morgan Stanley hailed its CATL-backed energy business. LinkedIn plans to reduce staff, adding to tech sector layoffs. The Alex Murdaugh conviction overturn is a non-market story. The Chinese tanker test of the Hormuz blockade remains a key risk to watch.