WS #7411

The dominant theme remains the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets, but this window shows a notable de-escalation in the narrative arc. The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing is the highest-signal development, with Xi warning Trump that mishandling Taiwan risks a 'clash.' No major breakthroughs were reported, and US stocks fell after the meeting. This counters the prior bullish risk-on thesis tied to trade détente. On the energy front, EIA data confirms the severity of the Strait of Hormuz closure: Brent spot surged past futures by $25/bbl, international LNG prices rose 35-51%, and the US has released 17.5M barrels from the SPR. However, the Bank of England's FPC noted the financial system has been resilient so far, and the MPC held rates at 3.75% with a split vote. The ECB's Lane quantified the impact: a 10% oil supply shock reduces euro area GDP by 0.2-0.3pp for three years. On the MAG7 front, Whale Rock Capital added AAPL and MSFT while cutting NVDA in Q1, and an Amazon officer filed to sell ~$3M in shares. TD Cowen raised price targets on AVGO ($500), CIEN ($675), and MRVL ($190), signaling continued AI/semiconductor demand. The Euroclear news (Russian central bank assets remain immobilized) is a legal development with limited market impact. Overall, the situation is STABLE with a slight de-escalation in trade war fears offset by persistent energy supply disruption.