WS #7412

The dominant theme remains the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets, but this window shows notable developments. The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing concluded with Xi warning Trump that mishandling Taiwan risks a 'clash,' and no major breakthroughs were reported. US stocks fell after the meeting, with the S&P 500 down 0.8% and tech stocks leading declines. This counters the prior bullish risk-on thesis tied to trade détente. On the energy front, the situation is escalating: India raised duties on diesel and petrol exports, the UAE is fast-tracking a pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz (operational by 2027), and Ukraine has doubled strikes on Russian oil refineries this year. Oil prices remain elevated with WTI at $105 and Brent at $109. Global bond yields are surging, with the 30-year yield nearing 2007 highs, as oil price shocks fuel inflation fears and expectations of central bank rate hikes. The BRICS meeting ended without a joint statement due to divisions over Iran, and Iran's foreign minister cited lack of trust as the main obstacle in US negotiations. In tech, Cerebras had a massive IPO, raising $5.5B and popping 108% on debut, signaling strong AI demand. However, semiconductor stocks are under heavy selling pressure: NVDA -3.5%, MU -5.7%, AMD -4.1%, INTC -6.5%, while MSFT is a bright spot at +3.6%. The DRAM ETF hit $9.8B in assets, highlighting memory chip supply constraints. Cisco announced record revenue but also 4,000 layoffs, citing AI-driven restructuring. OpenAI confirmed a supply-chain attack compromised employee credentials. Euroclear stated Russian central bank assets remain immobilized, countering any hopes of asset release. The Harvey Weinstein retrial jury was deadlocked, and a mistrial was declared on one charge. Overall, the narrative arc is ESCALATING for energy/macro risks, with de-escalation in trade war hopes offset by persistent supply disruption and rising yields.