WS #7413

The dominant macro theme remains the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets, with oil prices surging (WTI +4.16% to $105.4, Brent +3.55% to $109.5) and bond yields becoming 'unhinged' as SocGen warns inflation fears are accelerating. The 30-year yield is nearing 2007 highs, and a global bond selloff is halting the stock rally. India raised duties on diesel, petrol, and ATF exports, further tightening refined product supply. Israel struck a target in Gaza believed to be the de facto head of Hamas's armed wing, escalating geopolitical risk. On the tech front, semiconductor stocks are under heavy selling pressure (NVDA -3.52%, MU -5.67%, AMD -4.07%, INTC -6.46%) while MSFT is a bright spot at +3.56%. A $440M dark pool trade in MU suggests institutional activity. The DRAM ETF hit $9.8B in assets, highlighting memory chip supply constraints. Cerebras had a massive IPO, raising $5.5B and popping 108% on debut. Trump purchased up to $1M of NVDA stock on Jan 6, a week before the Commerce Department approved Nvidia chip sales to China. Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this fall. Boeing got a China deal during Trump's visit. The Texas Supreme Court rejected the governor's effort to remove Democrats over redistricting. Harvey Weinstein's retrial ended in a mistrial. Overall, the narrative arc is ESCALATING for energy/macro risks, with de-escalation in trade war hopes offset by persistent supply disruption and rising yields.