WS #7596

The dominant narrative remains the Iran/Strait of Hormuz escalation, with new confirmation that an Iranian kamikaze drone destroyed an oil refinery in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, directly threatening oil infrastructure and supply chains. This is corroborated by multiple sources (theboard.world, jetstream.bsky). Oil prices have surged, with Brent topping $110 and WTI nearing $107, per CNBC and Seeking Alpha. Trump issued a new warning to Iran on Truth Social, saying 'the Clock is Ticking,' further stoking supply fears. Asian markets are set for a mixed open, with Japan's Nikkei futures pointing higher but Hong Kong futures lower. The Ukraine drone war continues with a massive Russian drone and ballistic missile attack on multiple regions, including Kyiv, Vinnytsia, and Dnipro, but this is an ongoing escalation with no new market-moving data. A potential M&A signal: NextEra Energy is discussing a $76/share offer for Dominion Energy, per Bloomberg, which could impact utility sector valuations. Polymarket shows persistent trading on Fed rate hike bets (25 bps after June meeting) and oil price scenarios (WTI hitting $105/$110 in May), reflecting market anxiety. The Iran-Erbil refinery strike is the highest-signal item, as it directly impacts oil supply and could push crude prices higher, benefiting energy stocks (XOM, CVX) while hurting airlines and consumer sectors. The situation is ESCALATING on the Iran/energy front, with no counter-signals.