WS #7597

The dominant narrative remains the Iran/Strait of Hormuz escalation, which is ESCALATING. New developments include drone attacks reported in Saudi Arabia and UAE (corroborated by Al Jazeera and jetstream.bsky), Iran accusing the US of failing to offer concessions, and a warning from Trump. Global oil inventories are dropping at record rates, with analysts warning Brent could hit $130-$140 if the Strait remains closed. This is driving a broad risk-off move: S&P 500 futures down 0.6%, Nasdaq futures down 0.9%, Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.6%. The oil supply disruption is the primary catalyst, with no counter-signals. The Ukraine drone war continues but is a secondary, ongoing theme with no new market-moving data. A potential M&A signal from the previous window (NextEra-Dominion) has no new data and is not carried forward. Taiwan's eagerness for US arms deals is a low-significance geopolitical item. The Australian government ordering Chinese investors to sell stakes in Northern Minerals is a niche signal for rare earths but not broad market-moving. Polymarket trades show persistent betting on Fed rate hikes (25 bps after June) and oil price scenarios, reflecting market anxiety.