WS #7611

The dominant theme remains the global bond selloff and inflation fears driven by oil price spikes from US-Iran tensions, with no new de-escalation signals in this window. The narrative is STABLE — the same macro pressures persist without material change. Key developments include: (1) a massive Russian drone attack on Ukraine (524 drones, 14 missiles) overnight, escalating the conflict but already priced into oil/defense; (2) UK political turmoil escalates as Wes Streeting formally challenges PM Starmer for Labour leadership, adding to UK political risk; (3) US Treasury 30-year yield hits a two-decade high at 5.1418%, with 10-year at 4.6173% (15-month high), confirming the bond rout; (4) Bitcoin Depot files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, a negative signal for crypto; (5) Publicis acquires LiveRamp for $2.2B, a positive for data/AI M&A. No counter-signals to the prevailing bearish macro thesis emerged. The US-Iran situation remains unresolved, with Polymarket showing bets on Iran closing airspace and Strait of Hormuz disruption. The MSFT underperformance vs QQQ noted as a MAG7 carve-out.