WS #7612

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices and global markets, with the narrative ESCALATING. Key developments in this window include: Trump issued a stark warning to Iran ('clock is ticking'), while Iran's military stated it is 'fully prepared' to confront aggression. A drone strike hit the Barakah nuclear plant in the UAE, which the UAE called a 'dangerous escalation' and blamed on Iran or proxies. Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones from Iraq. The IAEA confirmed radiation levels at Barakah remain normal. Separately, the IEA warned that global oil inventories are being drawn down at a record pace, with 164 million barrels released, signaling potential future price spikes. The EU is reportedly planning to force companies to buy parts from non-Chinese suppliers, a significant escalation in trade tensions. Berkshire Hathaway closed several positions including V, MA, AMZN, and UNH in Q1 2026. Bill Gates' Foundation sold its last $3.2B stake in Microsoft. The UK political situation remains fluid with Starmer's leadership under pressure, but no new timetable for departure. The Ebola outbreak in DRC/Uganda is escalating with CDC mobilization, but US risk remains low. No counter-signals to the prevailing bearish macro thesis emerged; the oil supply disruption narrative is intensifying.