WS #7781

The dominant narrative remains the uneasy stalemate in the Iran conflict, with mixed signals from the US and Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to extend the conflict 'beyond the region' if US/Israel resume attacks, while VP Vance said the US is 'locked and loaded' but prefers a deal. This keeps oil markets on edge. Separately, a South Korean oil tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran's coordination, a small de-escalatory signal. On the macro front, Eurozone April inflation came in at +3.0% y/y as expected, and ECB's Wunsch sees a June hike as 'quite likely' if the war doesn't end. UK inflation slowed more than expected, prompting traders to trim BoE rate hike bets. Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Fed chair on Friday, with markets expecting no near-term easing. In company news, Nvidia earnings loom after the close today, with pre-market futures up and chip stocks (SMH +1.8%) rallying ahead of the print. Pfizer advanced its pediatric pneumococcal vaccine program on strong Phase 2 data. SpaceX is reportedly planning to buy startup Cursor 30 days after its IPO. The Iran war continues to pressure AI supply chains, with TSMC, Foxconn, and Infineon flagging cost headwinds from helium and energy prices. Nigeria producers are lifting output to offset Iran disruption. Overall, the market is in a cautious wait-and-see mode ahead of Nvidia earnings, with geopolitical risks still elevated but no new escalation.