WS #7782

The dominant narrative remains the uneasy Iran conflict stalemate, but several new developments have emerged. China banned Nvidia's gaming chip during Jensen Huang's visit, a direct escalation in US-China tech tensions that could pressure NVDA and the broader semiconductor sector. Separately, Ukrainian drones struck a Lukoil refinery in Russia, hitting a key processing unit, which could add to oil supply concerns. Indonesia surprised markets with a 0.5% rate hike to defend the rupiah, signaling emerging market stress. The Xi-Putin summit produced a 'multipolar world' declaration and 20 agreements, deepening the Sino-Russian axis and potentially complicating US geopolitical strategy. On the earnings front, RLX Technology reported a massive beat, and Nvidia heads into its earnings with the largest short position in the S&P 500, setting up high volatility. The ECB's Wunsch reiterated a June hike is 'quite likely' if the Iran war persists, reinforcing hawkish ECB expectations. Overall, the market is in a cautious wait-and-see mode ahead of Nvidia earnings, with geopolitical risks still elevated and new tech tensions emerging.