WS #7785

The dominant narrative in this window is a mix of geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and strong corporate earnings beats. ADNOC CEO confirmed the Hormuz shutdown is the most severe supply disruption on record, with global spare capacity at only 3M bpd (should be 5M bpd), and ADNOC's bypass pipeline is only 50% complete. Iran's IRGC Navy claims 26 vessels transited Hormuz in the past 24 hours with coordination, but the overall supply disruption remains acute. On the positive side, Lowe's (LOW) beat Q1 estimates with EPS $3.03 (+2% YoY) and reaffirmed FY26 guidance, while Analog Devices (ADI) beat Q2 with EPS $3.09 (+67% YoY) and revenue +37% YoY, signaling robust semiconductor demand. Target (TGT) delivered its biggest sales gain in four years. The market is laser-focused on Nvidia earnings after the close, with chip sector sentiment supported by ADI's strong outlook. The Iran situation is ESCALATING in terms of supply disruption severity, but the IRGC's claim of ongoing transits provides a slight counter-signal that traffic is not completely halted.