WS #7786

The dominant narrative in this window is a mix of geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and strong corporate earnings beats. ADNOC CEO confirmed the Hormuz shutdown is the most severe supply disruption on record, with global spare capacity at only 3M bpd (should be 5M bpd), and ADNOC's bypass pipeline is only 50% complete. Iran's IRGC Navy claims 26 vessels transited Hormuz in the past 24 hours with coordination, but the overall supply disruption remains acute. On the positive side, Lowe's (LOW) beat Q1 estimates with EPS $3.03 (+2% YoY) and reaffirmed FY26 guidance, while Analog Devices (ADI) beat Q2 with EPS $3.09 (+67% YoY) and revenue +37% YoY, signaling robust semiconductor demand. Target (TGT) delivered its biggest sales gain in four years. The market is laser-focused on Nvidia earnings after the close, with chip sector sentiment supported by ADI's strong outlook. The Iran situation is ESCALATING in terms of supply disruption severity, but the IRGC's claim of ongoing transits provides a slight counter-signal that traffic is not completely halted. Key developments include: (1) Intuit (INTU) shares down 2.4% premarket on news of 17% workforce layoffs, signaling cost-cutting amid slowing growth; (2) ASML CEO comments on strong AI demand leading to a supply-limited chip market, with next-gen High NA tech seeing first product data later this year, and discussions with Elon Musk about the TeraFab project; (3) ZIM (ZIM) misses Q1 badly with EPS -$0.71 (miss 87%) and revenue -30% YoY, highlighting shipping weakness; (4) Micron (MU) jumps 3% premarket on Melius target raise to $1,100, driven by AI data center demand causing memory chip shortages; (5) China bans Nvidia's RTX 5090D V2 chip while CEO Jensen Huang was visiting, escalating tech tensions; (6) Iran warns of 'many more surprises' if conflict resumes, and IRGC issues warning of regional war, while tankers exit Hormuz with 6 million barrels of crude oil, providing a partial supply relief signal.