WS #8004

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran military confrontation, with multiple corroborating sources. CBS reports the Trump administration is preparing fresh military strikes against Iran, with military and intelligence personnel cancelling weekend plans. This is corroborated by Israeli airstrikes on Tyre and the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon, resulting in 10 fatalities, and Russian nuclear forces drills. The narrative arc is ESCALATING. A counter-signal emerges: the Strait of Hormuz remains open and operating freely, and a Polymarket trade on 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May' suggests some expectation of de-escalation, but this does not offset the immediate military threat. Additionally, SpaceX launched an upgraded Starship V3 on a debut test flight three weeks before its IPO, a significant event for the space and defense sector. The Ebola outbreak in DRC is now the third largest on record and spreading rapidly, which could impact travel and pharmaceutical stocks. The US 30-year yield dropped for three straight days, signaling flight to safety or Fed cut expectations. Crypto markets are broadly down 2-4%.