WS #8005

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran military confrontation, with multiple corroborating sources. CBS reports the Trump administration is preparing fresh military strikes against Iran, corroborated by Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon resulting in 10 fatalities, and a drone-triggered fire at an oil terminal in Russia's Novorossiysk port. The narrative arc is ESCALATING. A counter-signal emerges: Polymarket trades on 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June' and 'Iran ceasefire continues through May 24' suggest some expectation of de-escalation, but these do not offset the immediate military threat. Additionally, SpaceX launched an upgraded Starship V3 on a debut test flight, a significant event for the space and defense sector, though the booster was lost on return. The US 30-year yield dropped for three straight days, signaling flight to safety or Fed cut expectations. Crypto markets are broadly down 2-4%.