WS #8093

The dominant signal in this window is the accelerating US-Iran deal narrative, which is ESCALATING from the previous window's de-escalation. Multiple high-credibility sources (Al Jazeera, Axios, UK PM Starmer, Malaysian PM Anwar, and numerous international outlets) now corroborate that a 60-day ceasefire MoU is in final stages, with Trump stating the deal is 'largely negotiated.' Key terms include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Iranian oil sales, and US sanctions relief in exchange for Iran removing mines and suspending uranium enrichment. This is a significant counter-signal to the earlier Tasnim report of obstacles. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains elevated with Russia's use of hypersonic Oreshnik missiles in a mass attack on Kyiv, killing at least 4. Separately, a gunman was shot dead by Secret Service near the White House while Trump was inside, but operations were unaffected. The Iran deal narrative is now the primary market-moving theme, with potential to sharply lower oil prices and boost risk assets.