WS #8094

The dominant signal in this window is the accelerating US-Iran deal narrative, which is ESCALATING from the previous window's de-escalation. Multiple high-credibility sources (Al Jazeera, The Guardian, Axios, and Polymarket trades) now corroborate that a 60-day ceasefire MoU is in final stages, with Trump stating the deal is 'largely negotiated.' Key terms include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Iranian oil sales, and US sanctions relief in exchange for Iran removing mines and suspending uranium enrichment. This is a significant counter-signal to the earlier Tasnim report of obstacles. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains elevated with drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure (Ryazan refinery, Novorossiysk oil depot) and a British fighter killed in Donetsk. Separately, a suicide bombing in southwest Pakistan killed 23 people. The Iran deal narrative is now the primary market-moving theme, with potential to sharply lower oil prices and boost risk assets. TSLA is noted as back under its 200-day moving average, a bearish technical signal for the stock.