WS #8122

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran deal framework, with multiple sources (Bluesky, Naked Capitalism, GDELT, Polymarket) confirming progress but also highlighting disputes and limitations. A supertanker carrying Iraqi crude crossed the US blockade into the Arabian Sea, signaling potential easing of supply constraints. However, Naked Capitalism reports that even if a pact is concluded, Strait of Hormuz traffic is expected to reach only 40% of old levels by year-end, and Iran disputes Trump's claims. Polymarket contracts show active trading on peace deal timelines and Strait of Hormuz normalization. The narrative is STABLE with no major escalation or de-escalation in this window. Separately, a $30.5M insider sale by Palantir's Karp Alexander is a bearish signal for PLTR. Disney's 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' opened as the lowest-ever Star Wars film, a negative for DIS. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure continue, and Russian missile attacks on Kyiv persist, but these are secondary to the Iran deal narrative. The Fed's new chair Walsh was sworn in, with markets positive (Dow record, S&P 500 8th straight weekly gain), but US consumer confidence hit a record low of 44.8, a stagflation warning.