WS #8123

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran deal framework, with multiple sources confirming progress but also highlighting disputes and limitations. A supertanker carrying Iraqi crude crossed the US blockade into the Arabian Sea, signaling potential easing of supply constraints. However, Naked Capitalism reports that even if a pact is concluded, Strait of Hormuz traffic is expected to reach only 40% of old levels by year-end, and Iran disputes Trump's claims. The White House has pushed the timeline to 'several more days,' and Iran's Tasnim News Agency reports the US continues blocking certain agreement clauses on releasing Iran's frozen assets, threatening the deal's viability. The narrative is STABLE with no major escalation or de-escalation in this window, but the deal's fragility is underscored by ongoing disputes. Separately, a $30.5M insider sale by Palantir's Karp Alexander is a bearish signal for PLTR. Disney's 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' opened with an estimated $165M worldwide, which is positive for DIS but below some expectations. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure continue, and Russian missile attacks on Kyiv persist, but these are secondary to the Iran deal narrative. DeepSeek's permanent 75% discount on its flagship AI model is a bearish signal for AI pricing power and could pressure NVDA and other AI-related stocks. SpaceX S-1 discloses a related-party deal where Anthropic pays xAI $1.25B/month for compute on Nvidia GPUs through May 2029, up to $45B total, which is bullish for NVDA's data center revenue visibility.