WS #8163

The dominant narrative remains the U.S.-Iran peace deal uncertainty, with significant new developments in the last 30 minutes. Secretary of State Rubio stated that a credible proposal for Iran including strait access and time-limited nuclear negotiations is on the table, and that a nuclear deal could be finalized as soon as Monday. This is corroborated by multiple sources: Bloomberg reports that Israel's central bank is set to cut rates as the US and Iran edge closer to a deal, and Al Jazeera reports that Asia stocks climbed on Iran peace hopes, with the Nikkei topping 65,000 for the first time. The Iran ceasefire continues through May 27 per Polymarket trades. These developments are bullish for equities (especially Asian markets) and bearish for oil prices, as a deal would ease supply disruptions. However, a counter-signal exists: a Substack post claims Republicans are calling Trump's Iran ceasefire plan a loser, suggesting political headwinds. Additionally, a surface-to-air missile was fired at an Israeli fighter jet over southern Lebanon, indicating regional tensions persist. China's crackdown on cross-border stock trading may affect up to $32 billion in Hong Kong assets, a bearish signal for Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks. The AI rally continues to drive global momentum stocks to record highs, per Bloomberg.