WS #8164

The dominant narrative remains the U.S.-Iran peace deal, which is escalating positively. Oil prices dropped to a two-week low (Brent $98.83, WTI $92.03) as optimism for a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz grows, corroborated by Bloomberg's report on emerging-market assets rising and oil dropping on deal hopes. This is bullish for equities (especially Asian markets) and bearish for oil. However, a counter-signal exists: a surface-to-air missile was fired at an Israeli fighter jet over southern Lebanon, indicating regional tensions persist. Additionally, Huawei proposed a new architectural path for advanced chips to defy US controls, which could impact semiconductor supply chains. The AI rally continues to drive global momentum stocks to record highs, per Bloomberg. Fertiliser groups are cutting production as Iran war squeezes sulphur supplies, affecting agricultural commodity markets.