WS #8404

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant market theme, with fresh airstrikes and Iranian retaliation continuing to escalate. Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck a US airbase after American forces downed Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices surging. Multiple sources corroborate the escalation: a Bloomberg report notes Treasury selloff as oil climbs, Al Jazeera covers Iran's response, and a Kayhan Life article details the strike. However, a counter-signal emerges: Iran's Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council is seeking release of frozen assets, and Iran says war is 'unlikely' per Newsmax, suggesting diplomatic channels remain open. This dampens the pure escalation narrative. Separately, a Google employee was charged with insider trading on Polymarket using confidential search data, a non-market-moving legal story. The Dow hit a record closing high as oil prices fell, indicating risk-on rotation in US equities despite geopolitical tensions. The narrative arc for US-Iran is STABLE with a slight de-escalation tilt due to diplomatic signals, but oil remains elevated.