WS #8405

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with fresh military strikes and retaliation, driving risk-off sentiment across global markets. Multiple sources confirm IRGC strikes on a US airbase in retaliation for US strikes near Bandar Abbas, with Kuwaiti air defenses also repelling missile and drone attacks. This has caused FTSE futures and the pound to fall, oil prices to surge, and Treasuries to retreat. However, a counter-signal emerges: markets are also pricing in hopes of a US-Iran deal, with oil prices diving 5.5% after the White House dismissed reports of a framework as fabrications. The narrative arc is ESCALATING in military terms but with diplomatic undercurrents. Separately, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw $528M outflow (second-largest on record), indicating institutional crypto de-risking amid macro uncertainty. Taiwan confirmed no timetable for US chip tariffs, providing a slight positive for semiconductor stocks. NIO shares surged on ES9 SUV launch, a company-specific positive.