WS #8894

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in the Iran-US conflict, with reports of Iranian missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, including a fatal attack on Kuwait International Airport (1 killed, 63 injured). The IRGC claims control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump claims Iran accepted his nuclear conditions—a potential counter-signal that could de-escalate if confirmed. Separately, Ukrainian drones struck an oil terminal and a naval base in St. Petersburg, Russia, ahead of Putin's economic forum, marking a significant escalation in the Ukraine-Russia war. In financial markets, Partners Group's move to cap redemptions in its $8.6B evergreen fund has triggered a selloff in private equity stocks (KKR, Blackstone, Ares, Blue Owl, Carlyle) premarket, reigniting fears about liquidity in private markets. Earnings reports show mixed results: Sprinklr beat estimates but lowered guidance, Macy's raised forecasts, and Ollie's beat EPS but missed revenue. The US is proposing new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners, a major trade policy escalation. Bitcoin's RSI is oversold below 30, hinting at a potential recovery, but analysts warn of further downside to $60K or lower.