WS #8895

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in the Iran-US conflict, with multiple sources reporting Iranian missile and drone strikes on Kuwait International Airport (1 killed, 63 injured) and clashes involving Kuwait and Bahrain. The Financial Times reports the three-month-old conflict has severely curtailed transit across the Strait of Hormuz, forcing oil firms to seek ways to limit Tehran's control. Maersk says the Hormuz conflict costs top $500M a month, with shipping fees being passed to consumers. This is a significant escalation from the previous window's ceasefire narrative. Separately, Ukrainian drones struck an oil terminal in St. Petersburg and a naval base in Kronstadt, confirmed by Zelensky, as Russia's flagship economic forum opened—a major escalation in the Ukraine-Russia war. In financial markets, private credit stocks are tumbling on a Cliffwater redemption surge, adding to the previous window's Partners Group redemption cap narrative. GameStop reported a Q1 double beat and authorized a $2 billion buyback, sending shares higher. Medtronic posted a Q4 beat on its cardiovascular segment. The USTR proposed Section 301 tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 economies, with comments due July 6 and hearings July 7. Bitcoin fell below $68,000 amid sharp trading swings. The OECD lowered 2027 growth forecasts with a stark warning on inflation risks. Citigroup raised its IBM price target to $375 from $285. Crypto PACs went undefeated in June primaries. Payment giants Stripe, Visa, Mastercard are reportedly backing a new stablecoin platform.