WS #9140

The dominant theme remains the escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with active military exchanges. Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Kuwait and Bahrain, which were intercepted by US forces, while the US struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites. This represents a significant escalation from the previous window's Strait of Hormuz closure rhetoric, now with direct attacks on Gulf allies. The conflict is clearly ESCALATING. Iran is demanding $24 billion in frozen assets as a condition for talks, indicating no near-term de-escalation. This supports bullish energy sentiment (XOM, CVX, XLE) and bearish consumer/airline sentiment. Bitcoin has crashed below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024, down 16% in a week, driven by strong jobs data raising rate hike fears, ETF outflows, and geopolitical uncertainty. This counters the previous crypto-positive narrative. The SpaceX-Google $920M/month compute deal is confirmed by multiple sources, a high-significance positive for AI infrastructure (NVDA, GOOGL). The Nasdaq selloff (-4.2%) and chip stock rout (-$1.3T) are ongoing, with strong jobs data reinforcing rate hike expectations. The Fed is now expected to potentially hike rates by July, a major shift from the prior easing bias. Russia-Ukraine drone strikes continue, with Ukraine hitting oil depots, but no new major escalation. The Pentagon raised Israel's counterintelligence threat level to 'critical' (carry-forward). The Apple-Siri reliance on Google/Nvidia is a new high-significance development for NVDA and GOOGL, partially countering the tech selloff.