WS #9614

The dominant signal in this window is a major de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, with multiple sources reporting that a peace deal is imminent. Bloomberg, Iranian state media, and various social media accounts corroborate that the US and Iran are nearing a memorandum of understanding that would include sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a potential signing as soon as Sunday at the G7 meeting in Geneva. This has triggered a sharp drop in oil prices (Brent down ~5% to $86), a rally in European equities (CAC 40 +2%, DAX +1.8%), and a rotation into cyclical stocks. The narrative arc is a clear DE-ESCALATION from the prior crisis frame. Separately, SpaceX's historic IPO is underway, pricing at $135/share for a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest IPO ever. Ukraine continues drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, but this is secondary to the Iran news. The ECB raised rates by 25bps to 2.25% due to Iran conflict inflation, and the Bundesbank cut its GDP forecast. China arrested a US researcher for spying, adding friction. Taiwan Semiconductor may hike 3nm chip prices 15% due to AI demand. BlackRock filed to list a bitcoin income ETF. Stifel downgraded Adobe to Hold with a $200 target.