WS #9615

The dominant signal in this window is the continued de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, with multiple sources (Bloomberg, Financial Post, NYT, Seeking Alpha) reporting that a peace deal is imminent, potentially at the G7 meeting next week. This has driven oil prices down over 4% (Brent at $86.36), triggered a rally in European equities and luxury stocks (LVMH up ~5%), and fueled a rotation into cyclicals. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING, consistent with the previous window. However, a counter-signal emerged: a Dutch-language Bluesky post claims Iran has fired ballistic missiles at Israel, causing school closures. This is unconfirmed by major news outlets and may be noise, but if true, it would sharply reverse the de-escalation narrative. Separately, Meta (META) has completed an operational split from Manus and suspended data sharing on Beijing's orders, a significant geopolitical risk for the stock. SpaceX's IPO continues to dominate headlines, with Polymarket bets on its opening price and market cap. NVDA received a positive catalyst: Chinese customers can now order its Vera CPUs, and the Vera AI data center CPU business is expected to reach $20B in revenue this fiscal year. Rocket Lab (RKLB) will join the Nasdaq-100, a bullish index inclusion catalyst. Sleep Number (SNBR) filed for bankruptcy sale to Sleep Country Canada, a negative for the stock. The Bundesbank cut its GDP forecast due to the Iran war, but Germany's economy ministry said there is no need to release further strategic oil reserves, a counter to supply fears.