WS #9821

A major geopolitical breakthrough dominates the window: the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire and peace deal, confirmed by President Trump, Pakistani PM Sharif, and Iran's deputy foreign minister. The Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen toll-free, with the US naval blockade lifted. This de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict is a powerful counter-signal to the prevailing oil supply crisis and geopolitical risk narrative. Oil prices are already falling sharply, US equity futures are climbing, and the dollar is weakening. Separately, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv, hitting residential buildings and the historic Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, but this is a continuation of the existing conflict and does not represent a new escalation. The US-Iran deal is the dominant, market-moving signal, with cross-source corroboration from AP, Reuters, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, Axios, and multiple social media accounts. The narrative arc is a sharp ESCALATION in peace prospects, directly countering the prior war-driven oil spike thesis.