WS #9822

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed US-Iran ceasefire and peace deal, which is a massive counter-signal to the prior oil supply crisis and geopolitical risk narrative. President Trump, Pakistani PM Sharif, and Iran's deputy foreign minister have all confirmed the agreement, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz toll-free and the lifting of the US naval blockade. This development is corroborated by multiple high-credibility sources including AP, Reuters, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, Axios, and NYT. The market impact is already visible: oil prices are falling sharply, US equity futures are climbing, and the dollar is weakening. The narrative arc is a sharp DE-ESCALATION in geopolitical risk, directly countering the war-driven oil spike thesis. Separately, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv, hitting residential buildings and the historic Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, but this is a continuation of the existing conflict and does not represent a new escalation. The US-Iran deal is the dominant, market-moving signal with cross-source corroboration and immediate market implications.