WS #9823

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed US-Iran peace deal, which is a massive counter-signal to the prior oil supply crisis and geopolitical risk narrative. President Trump has announced the deal is complete, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen toll-free, and the US naval blockade is lifted. This is corroborated by multiple high-credibility sources including AP, Bloomberg, NYT, Al Jazeera, and Reuters. The market impact is already visible: oil prices are falling, Bitcoin has climbed past $65,000, and Japanese stocks are set to rise. The narrative arc is a sharp DE-ESCALATION in geopolitical risk, directly countering the war-driven oil spike thesis. Separately, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv, but this is a continuation of the existing conflict and does not represent a new escalation. The US-Iran deal is the dominant, market-moving signal with cross-source corroboration and immediate market implications.