WS #9906

The dominant narrative in this window is the evolving U.S.-Iran situation, with multiple sources reporting conflicting details. Seeking Alpha reports that the Strait of Hormuz will be toll-free for 60 days, but the post-60-day period is unclear. This is corroborated by Polymarket markets on Iranian transit fees and peace deals, and by a Bluesky post noting disputes over the reported peace understanding, including denials of a $300B payout and conditional relief. The CIA Director warned of Iranian non-compliance with nuclear commitments, adding a bearish counter-signal. Separately, a B-52 crash at Edwards AFB (8 presumed dead) is a high-significance military aviation disaster, though its direct market impact is limited to defense sentiment. The BOJ meeting is a key macro event: Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi will attend, and the market overwhelmingly expects a rate hike to 1.00%, with yen shorts at 9-year highs, posing carry unwind risk for equities and BTC. Nvidia (NVDA) is highlighted as bringing 'good vibes' with a 5.5% SOX index gain and a $25B bond issuance, a bullish signal for semis. Insider selling in DELL and HOOD is notable but not market-moving. The G7 summit in Evian is underway amid Russian missile strikes on Ukraine (70 missiles, 611 drones), but no new policy announcements have emerged. Overall, the U.S.-Iran narrative is STABLE with conflicting signals, the BOJ risk is ESCALATING, and the B-52 crash is a new negative event.