WS #9907

The dominant narrative remains the U.S.-Iran deal, with multiple sources confirming a memorandum of understanding has been signed electronically to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera, BBC, and Seeking Alpha all report the deal, with oil prices tumbling (Brent crude down 4.8% to $83.17) and fuel prices expected to take months to normalize. However, counter-signals emerge: Netanyahu says Israel will keep forces in Lebanon despite the deal, and senators are kept in the dark, refraining from praise. Separately, the BOJ meeting is the key macro event—market odds >90% for a hike to 1.00%, with yen shorts at 9-year highs, posing carry unwind risk for equities and BTC. A B-52 crash at Edwards AFB (8 presumed dead) is a high-significance military aviation disaster. GM is in talks to supply weapons parts to Lockheed Martin, a bullish signal for defense. The U.S.-Iran narrative is STABLE with conflicting details, the BOJ risk is ESCALATING, and the B-52 crash is a new negative event.