WS #9932

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation of a US-Iran deal framework, with multiple sources (Bloomberg, social media, Polymarket) reporting progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump stated the Strait will remain open and toll-free, while a social media thread noted navigation volume may return to nearly 50% of pre-war levels within a month. This is a significant de-escalation of the oil supply crisis that has driven crude prices higher since February. The ECB raised rates by 25bp on June 11, citing Middle East inflation pressures, while the Bank of Japan also raised rates by 25bp and suspended bond purchase reductions. These hawkish moves contrast with the Fed's pause at 3.5-3.75%. In corporate news, SpaceX is reportedly acquiring Anysphere (Cursor AI) for $60B, a massive AI deal that underscores the AI arms race. Robinhood cut 10% of staff ($28M restructuring charges). Equinor doubled its 2026 buyback and raised Norway output targets. BlackRock launched a Bitcoin ETF with a covered call strategy. The crypto market saw a bullish rally with Bitcoin passing $65,000, driven by the Hormuz reopening sentiment. Africa CDC warned the Ebola outbreak could worsen if not contained soon. Overall, the narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on oil/geopolitical risk (Hormuz reopening), ESCALATING on central bank hawkishness (ECB/BOJ hikes), and STABLE on US monetary policy.