WS #9933

The dominant signal in this window is the continued de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources confirming the Strait of Hormuz reopening and a Geneva signing ceremony scheduled for Friday. Iranian state media reports the US Navy has begun lifting its naval blockade, and Polymarket trades show heavy activity on Hormuz-related contracts. This reinforces the prior narrative of oil supply normalization, which is bearish for crude and bullish for consumer/transport sectors. Separately, SpaceX's $60B acquisition of Cursor (Anysphere) is confirmed by CNBC and multiple outlets, signaling continued AI arms race intensity. On the geopolitical front, Ukraine struck Moscow's main oil refinery with drones, causing a halt in operations per Reuters, while Russian oil giant Tatneft imposed fuel purchase limits nationwide—this is a significant escalation in the Russia-Ukraine energy war that could support oil prices. The ECB's Philip Lane is speaking on the euro area economy, and ECB's Escriva warned energy supply complications persist despite the Hormuz deal, suggesting central banks remain hawkish. In corporate news, Yum! Brands is selling Pizza Hut for $2.3B, Open Lending is being acquired for $3.15/share, and Allison Transmission secured a $250M defense contract. The FBI thwarted a plot targeting the White House UFC event, which is a security signal but unlikely to move markets directly. Overall, the narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on US-Iran (Hormuz reopening), ESCALATING on Russia-Ukraine energy attacks, and STABLE on central bank hawkishness.